Do you ever wish you could know the results of your hard work ahead of time? Well, you kind of can with SEO forecasting.

SEO forecasting is about predicting the future performance of your website in search results. 

It involves using the SEO data you already have, such as organic website traffic and keyword rankings, to estimate future organic traffic, rankings for specific keywords, and the overall value of your SEO efforts.

However, predicting your website’s future performance is difficult. Some methods require you to write scripts and use SEO forecasting tools. Even if you do it right, data accuracy is not guaranteed. It’s like forecasting weather for the upcoming months — things can go wrong at any time. 

That being said, even an estimate can be valuable for planning your SEO strategy.

Let’s take a look at the SEO metrics you can forecast, which formulas to use, and how to do it step-by-step. 

Which SEO Metrics Can You Forecast?

Although accurately predicting your website’s performance in organic search results is impossible, some metrics can be estimated based on trends and historical data. 

These include potential organic growth, leads generated through organic traffic, sales, and organic CTR, to name a few. 

Below, I’ll explain how you can calculate these metrics step-by-step. These methods don’t require you to use any comprehensive tools. Instead, they are easy-to-implement strategies that I teach SEOs in TTT Academy. 

1. Organic Traffic

Predicting organic traffic unlocks opportunities. 

If you are an SEO freelancer willing to close the deal with the potential client, show them the projected outcome of your work. They’ll likely work with you if you show what they can achieve with your help. 

The logic is the same whether you are an in-house SEO expert or an external SEO strategist. Everyone wants to know the ROI of their SEO investment. That’s why I recommend starting with an organic traffic forecast. 

There are two main approaches: statistical forecasting and keyword forecasting.

Statistical forecasting analyzes historical data to predict future trends and is a more advanced way to forecast your SEO efforts. It implies you have a massive array of historical data and understand how to use the forecasting techniques, assuming no significant SEO changes will occur in the future. 

I recommend starting with keyword forecasting. This method can help you predict future organic traffic based on keyword rankings. In my opinion, it is much easier to understand and requires only four steps:

1. Conduct SEO competitor analysis to identify gaps in your content strategy. 
2. Use Semrush Keyword Overview to research and analyze keywords with high search volumes.
3. Group these keywords into topics and estimate how your website will rank for these keywords after publishing optimizing content. 
4. Use average click-through rates (CTRs) for different ranking positions to project organic traffic.

You can use this formula to estimate the potential organic traffic based on your target keywords: 

I know this may sound tricky. So, here’s an example for you. 

Below, you can see how much traffic your website could get if it ranked first, second, or third on SERP for the given keywords. 

If your website ranked in the first position for all the keywords, you’d get 9,171 monthly visitors, and 3,655 visitors if you ranked in the third position. 

I calculated organic traffic estimates using the given formula. For CTR, I used the average estimates from the Backlinko study. 

If you want to learn more about the keyword forecasting method, I recommend checking Semrush’s in-depth guide about calculating SEO potential. 

2. Conversions

Imagine you have an online store where you want to sell peanut butter cookies. 

In the previous example, you estimated that ranking 3rd for the keyword “gluten-free peanut butter cookies” can help you attract 726 potential customers. 

However, not every site visitor will eventually become your customer. That’s why you must estimate how many sales you can make to justify your SEO efforts. 

Use this formula to calculate the number of conversions for every web page:

If you don’t know your website’s average conversion rate, check this metric in your Google Analytics 4 account. For new websites, I recommend researching the niche and using the industry average. 

Let’s say you can convert roughly 5% of your website visitors – the average CR based on your website performance data over the last 12 months. 

If you create a dedicated page targeting the “gluten-free peanut butter cookies” keyword, the estimated number of conversions would be 726*5%=36.

3. Organic Click-Through Rate (CTR)

Organic CTR is a metric that shows the percentage of people who click on your website links in search results for organic search terms, excluding paid ads. It essentially tells you how enticing your search result is compared to others.

You can calculate organic CTR using this formula: 

While perfectly forecasting organic CTR is challenging, you can estimate your website’s future performance based on historical data and industry benchmarks. 

Here’s the basic approach.

First, gather your website’s current CTRs for relevant keywords. Google Search Console can show you the average ranking position for every keyword. I recommend exporting this data to Google Sheets.

As a next step, come up with ideas on how to boost your website rankings. For example, you can conduct backlink analysis and build new backlinks to increase authority, use SEO copywriting to create more content, or improve meta titles, to name a few. 

Finally, use industry benchmarks to predict how improved rankings might translate into an increased CTR. I recommend using Backlinko’s organic CTR study as a benchmark.

Let me show you how this SEO forecasting works in practice. 

Suppose you want to move the “substack alternatives” keyword from the 11th position to the 7th position on Google. Backlinko’s organic CTR benchmark suggests the CTR will increase to 3.9%. That’s a significant improvement from the previous 1.28% metric. 

Follow this method to forecast CTRs for your most important keywords. Note that external factors such as competitors’ SEO efforts and search engine algorithm updates can also influence CTR. However, even the tiniest CTR improvement can result in a considerable increase in organic traffic. 

Why SEO Forecasting Is Important 

While SEO best practices can help you improve your website’s current performance, SEO forecasting can go even further. 

If you haven’t forecasted your SEO growth yet, below are a few reasons how it can help you maximize the return on investment (ROI) of your SEO efforts:

1. Set Realistic Goals

Imagine aiming for the top search spot overnight – it’s unrealistic! 

That’s why setting achievable goals is crucial in any SEO strategy. SEO forecasting is the key to making it happen.

With realistic expectations, you can track progress effectively, adapt your strategy when needed, and demonstrate the potential ROI of your SEO efforts. Ultimately, SEO forecasting keeps your goals grounded in reality and sets you up for sustainable SEO success.

2. Plan Ahead

Imagine your website was negatively impacted by the Google Helpful Algorithm Update. As an SEO specialist, you’d have to determine the cause of the problem and recommend solutions. 

Wouldn’t it be better to know the potential risks before facing them? Absolutely! 

With SEO forecasting, you can analyze past traffic and ranking data to predict how your website will perform in organic search results. It will help you adjust your SEO strategy and make better decisions.

3. Predict the Future Impact

If you work with clients, SEO forecasting can help you predict the future impact of your SEO services. You can demonstrate your value by making data-driven predictions about organic traffic growth and potential ROI.

Imagine telling a client that their SEO efforts will lead to a projected 20% increase in organic traffic – that’s a powerful way to justify the resources needed to move your SEO efforts forward.

Is SEO Forecasting Accurate? 

On the one hand, predicting future organic traffic and ranking positions is incredibly valuable. It can help you set realistic goals for your clients, allocate resources wisely, and prioritize tasks. 

On the other hand, the ever-evolving nature of search algorithms and user behavior undermines the idea of accurate predictions. 

So, can SEO forecasting be accurate?

The answer lies somewhere between a hopeful “it depends” and a realistic “no.”

Here’s why making accurate SEO forecasts is difficult. 

Search engines like Google constantly update their algorithms. It makes predicting future website performance in organic search results more challenging. In addition, online user behavior and competitor strategies are ever-shifting forces that can change even the most accurate forecasts.

Ultimately, SEO forecasting should be viewed as a compass, not a GPS. It shows a direction, but unexpected detours are always a potential. 

The key takeaway is that SEO remains an ongoing process of adaptation and refinement. If you use forecasts alongside data-driven strategies, you can navigate the ever-changing search landscape and achieve your organic visibility goals. 

How Do You Forecast SEO Growth?

Below, you’ll find the tried-and-true SEO forecasting methods that I teach inside TTT Academy. Many students don’t have prior technical SEO knowledge and skills, but they manage to successfully apply them in practice. 

The following SEO forecasting tools and a step-by-step guide will help you make your SEO journey smooth. 

SEO Forecasting Tools

Imagine steering a ship blindfolded – getting to your destination would require incredible luck. SEO is similar. Without a data-driven roadmap, achieving significant organic traffic gains is a guessing game. This is where the following SEO forecasting tools come in handy. 

Google Search Console 

Google Search Console (GSC) is a free tool offered by Google that can help you collect accurate data about your website’s performance in organic search results. It doesn’t guarantee your website will be crawled and indexed, but it gives you valuable insights to improve your search visibility.

I recommend tracking the following data in Google Search Console that you can later use for traffic projection.

• Total clicks: How many times a user clicked through to your website
• Total impressions: How many times your website was shown in organic search results 
• Average CTR: This is the percentage of impressions that turned into clicks
• Average position: Average position of your website in organic search results worldwide or a particular country

Google Search Console shows you data from the past three months by default. However, you can review and export data from the past two years. 

I’ve already shown you how to forecast organic CTR using Google Search Console. However, you can analyze much more data with GSC. 

For example, you can use GSC to review all keywords your website ranks for on the second search result page. If these are money-making keywords, add them to your to-do list and forecast SEO growth. 

Imagine you stumble upon promising keywords while reviewing GSC’s queries report. You can address this potential content gap by creating dedicated pages optimized for target keywords. It can help you increase organic traffic in the future.

Google Analytics 4

Google Analytics 4 is a free web analytics service offered by Google. You can use GA4 to track user behavior on your website and measure micro and macro conversions. 

I’ve briefly mentioned GA4 when explaining how to forecast conversions. That’s because GA4 is a go-to tool for analyzing conversion rates, the average number of monthly sales, top money-making pages, how long users stay on your website, and more. 

Semrush

Up until now I’ve mainly talked about analyzing and forecasting your website’s SEO growth. However, you likely won’t have access to competitors’ GA4 and GSC. Furthermore, none of Google’s free tools provide comprehensive keyword research and analysis data.

This is why I recommend using third-party data tools like Semrush. 

As an SEO expert, I’ve used Semrush for years because it’s an all-in-one digital marketing toolkit for all your SEO needs.

For example, you can use the Semrush Keyword Overview tool to discover keywords relevant to your business and estimate their impact on your website’s organic traffic growth. You can also analyze the following data for every keyword:

• Search intent: The “why” behind users’ queries is their search intent
• Search volume: The average monthly searches for your target keyword
• Keyword difficulty: The keyword difficulty score ranges from 0 to 100
• Keyword cost-per-click (CPC): Average price advertisers pay per click 

Once you are done researching keywords and have a keyword list, I recommend exporting the data to Google Sheets for further analysis. As you already know, you can easily forecast organic traffic growth by knowing the keyword monthly volume and your website’s average CTR. 

Manual SEO Forecasting

Forecasting SEO growth manually requires time and effort and it’s worth noting that the outcome won’t necessarily be accurate. 

However, compared to advanced methods, that’s the easiest and fastest way to predict your website’s growth. 

Note that there’s a big difference between SEO forecasting for a new website and an existing project. 

A new website doesn’t have historical data to base your forecast on. If that’s your case and your client asks you about the potential website growth, I recommend estimating organic traffic based on keyword volumes. I’ve already explained how to do it and shared a proven formula earlier in this article. 

If your website has been running for at least one year, there’s plenty of data to work on. 

Depending on your website’s age and business goals, I recommend using the following data sources for SEO forecasting:

• First-party data sources: Google Search Console, Google Analytics 4.
• Third-party data sources: Semrush, Screaming Frog, etc.

How to Make Predictions Based on Historical Data

It is the easiest way to forecast your website’s organic growth that doesn’t require calculations or technical skills. 

Let’s say Google Analytics 4 reports suggest that your website’s traffic increased by 9% over the past year. Based on my experience, that’s a decent result to be proud of. If you continue to follow the same strategy, your website will likely grow another 9% in the following year. 

I’ve often used this method to report SEO progress and make prompt data-driven estimates. However, this method has a big con: it doesn’t consider Google algorithm updates, search trends, and competitors’ SEO progress. 

If you use this forecasting method, warn your SEO team or a client about data accuracy.

How to Make Predictions Based On Competitors’ Performance 

There’s another beginner-friendly method of manual forecasting. Unlike the previous method, this one considers competitors’ efforts. 

Here’s how you can leverage competitor data to predict your SEO growth:

1. Identify your direct competitors. First, research your organic competitors that rank for your target keywords. I recommend using Semrush Organic Research to quickly review competitors with common keywords. 

2. Analyze backlinks. Based on the Semrush 2024 study, backlinks are still among the strongest ranking factors. If your competitors extensively build new backlinks, but you don’t, they might outperform you in organic search results. 

As the second step, pick a few competitors with a strong backlink profile. Now, estimate if you can replicate their strategies by reaching out to similar websites for guest blogging opportunities or broken link building.

I also recommend reviewing the latest Google core algorithm updates since Google strongly advises against using:

• Expired domains for link building
• Scaled content to manipulate search rankings
• Site reputation to manipulate search rankings

3. Track competitor keyword rankings. At this point, I strongly recommend spying on competitors’ top-ranking keywords that are relevant to your website. This way, you’ll know which keywords to focus on and will be able to forecast your website growth, assuming you’ll outperform your competitors.

Use the Semrush Keyword Gap report to review common keywords and unique opportunities for your website. I also recommend answering these questions while analyzing competitor keywords:

• What’s their keyword strategy?
• Are there specific keywords that they consistently outrank you for?
• Can you create even better, more informative content targeting the same terms?

4. Assess competitor content performance. Analyze your competitors’ top-ranking content for your target keywords that your website doesn’t rank for yet. In particular, check:

• Content length
• Content structure
• Content format (videos, infographics, blog posts, etc.) 

Can you create in-depth content that will outperform theirs in quality? 

5. Forecast your SEO growth based on the collected data. At this point, you already know keywords your competitors outperform you in organic search results. You also know their top-performing keywords that are relevant to your business, but you haven’t targeted them yet.

With this valuable data, you can make organic traffic projections using the above-mentioned formulas and methods. 

However, don’t expect to outrank established competitors overnight. You have to be realistic in your SEO forecasting and set achievable goals for traffic growth and ranking improvements.

Become an SEO Pro With TTT Academy

Even though accurately predicting SEO growth is nearly impossible, you should be able to make data-driven decisions. 

Instead of going through trial and error, join our TTT Academy and learn from 40+ SEO experts, including Aleyda Solis, Matthew Howells-Barby, and Lazarina Stoy. They will support your journey inside the TTT Academy and accelerate your SEO growth. 

As a TTT Academy student, you’ll also get access to the entire content library with more than 200 hours of training, expert-led monthly webinars, and an exclusive Slack community of engaged professionals. 

Ready to get started?

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